Update: Northern Lights Forecast Updated to ‘Strong’ for Us – When to See the Aurora Tonight

Update: Clarifications from NOAA’s Future Climate Center were added regarding the arrival time of the coronal mass ejection that accelerates around the sun’s orbit.

Are you ready for the northern lights tonight? Contrary to the recent forecast of possible, possible or weak aurora displays, here comes someone who should pay special attention – a “strong” geomagnetic storm.

Meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have issued a G4 (Strong) geomagnetic storm forecast for Thursday, Oct. 10 and Friday, Oct. 11.

“We are predicting a strong G4 geomagnetic storm,” said Shawn Dahl, Service Coordinator at NOAA’s National Weather Service, in a press briefing Wednesday. “The current expectation is that it will arrive tomorrow [Thursday] morning to noon Eastern time and possibly continue into the next day [Friday].”

US States Where the Northern Lights Can Be Seen

“The aurora may be visible over much of the northern part of the country, and possibly as far as Alabama and northern California,” reads the northern lights warning. That’s what the agency said before the “severe solar storm” of May 10, the strongest aurora display in perhaps hundreds of years, which turned into a G5 (Extreme) geomagnetic storm.

It is rare for a G4 geomagnetic storm to be predicted, so it would be wise to prepare for a big show – however, as well as being a strong G5 it could also become a weak G3. Here’s how the scale works, according to NOAA:

• G2 (Minor) tornadoes are usually seen in southern New York and Idaho.
• G3 (moderate) tornadoes can generally be seen as far south as Illinois and Oregon.
• G4 (severe) storms can generally be seen as far south as Alabama and northern California.
• G5 (extreme) storms can generally be seen as far south as Florida and southern Texas.

How to See the Northern Lights

Light pollution can make the northern lights difficult to see, so try to get out of the city and into rural skies, checking first to see if the weather is clear. If it’s cloudy, you won’t see anything.

The best areas will be anywhere that appears dark on the light pollution map, preferably without a major city to the north. The best places to go are the World’s Darkest Places, which include many US State and National Parks.

How to Photograph the Northern Lights

It’s possible to have a photo-only aurora – especially if you live in a city – that requires a smartphone or camera to see. Here’s what to do with your smartphone to check for faint auroras nearby.

• Enter “Night Mode,” which will be good enough to get an impressive souvenir of the aurora. It may mean long exposures between five and 10 seconds, which makes the next three steps important.
• Use your prime lens, NOT a super wide lens (which is low).
• Use a basic smartphone accessory and a small tripod to prevent camera shake, keeping your images sharp.
• Create raw images, making it easy to improve your photos using simple edits.

What Causes the Northern Lights This Week

The reason is a coronal mass ejection – a stream of charged particles from the sun – that exploded from the sun on Oct. 8. and they are moving fast towards the Earth. It is likely to arrive in Oct. 10 after accelerating into space at 2.5 million miles per hour, according to NOAA. “It’s the fastest CME we’ve measured in this solar cycle so far,” Dahl said.

“There is a possibility of reaching G4 (Severe) when this CME arrives and throughout its duration,” says NOAA.

However, there is always uncertainty in the prediction of aurora displays, as NOAA notes: “We will not know the characteristics of a CME until it reaches 1 million kilometers in from Earth and its speed and gravity are measured by DSCOVR and the ACE satellites,” says NOAA.

For the latest updates, check out NOAA’s aurora line, NOAA’s 30-minute forecast and its X account, where the latest updates are posted.

‘Solar Maximum’ News

On both sides of the warning for the G4 geomagnetic storm issued by NOAA on Oct. 9, two rays of the sun were extinguished in the sun. X-class wave X1.8 at 01:56 UTC followed by X1.4 at 15:47 UTC. They were spotted by satellites orbiting Earth, including NASA’s SOHO Observatory.

Geomagnetic activity tends to peak when the sun is near solar maximum – the peak of its 11-year solar cycle – and near the equinox, when the Earth’s axis is tilted towards the sun. Both of those conditions have now been fulfilled.

The latest SWPC forecast is for the sun to reach solar maximum between August 2024 and January 2025, though on Tuesday, Oct. 8, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and NASA announced that a media teleconference will be held at 2 pm EDT on Tuesday, Oct. 15, discussing the work of the sun and the progression of the Solar Cycle 25.

Either way, the high number of solar flares and CMEs and the intense and powerful geomagnetic storms they cause are likely to continue until 2026.

I wish you clear skies and big eyes.